NGX Daily Market Summary – Thursday, June 5, 2025

The Nigerian equities market posted a robust performance today as the NGX All Share Index (ASI) rallied 1.63% to close at 112,781.73. The YTD gain now stands at 11.08%. Market turnover virtually doubled, surging 97.65% versus the previous session on strong institutional flows. Market breadth was constructive at 1.75x, reflecting 42 advancers against just 24 decliners. Notably, large volume spikes and notable momentum crossovers created a wave of bullish signals across key banking, brewers, and telecom stocks. The Naira also appreciated slightly by 0.13%, settling at 1,580/USD.

Key Market Highlights

• Market Breadth: Positive, with 42 advancers vs. 24 decliners (breadth ratio 1.75x), underpinned by strong sectoral breadth in banking, breweries, and telecom.
• Turnover: Exploded to N29.94B (up 97.65% day/day), highlighting aggressive institutional activity and high conviction positioning.
• Trading Volume: Jumped to 1.25B shares, more than doubling the previous session, with broad participation and intensified block trades.
• Top Gainer: CHAMPION (Champion Brew. Plc.) up 10.00% to 7.70 – RSI entered overbought at 70.16, but MACD slightly lagging.
• Top Loser: NGXGROUP down 10.00% to 39.60 – despite YTD gains of 45.32%, profit taking emerged after a strong run.
• Unusual Volume Standouts: FIDELITYBK (+1.32%), LEARN AFRICA (-3.75%), LIVINGTRUST (+8.11%) all saw volumes several fold above 90-day averages.

Top 5 Gainers

Top 5 Losers

Market Breadth & Trends

• Advancers to Decliners ratio strong at 1.75x, showing broad-based rally momentum.
• Volume surges in Fidelity Bank (+1.32%) and LEARN AFRICA (-3.75%) signal renewed institutional and speculative interest in banking and education sectors.
• Value traded by institutional investors dominated today’s activity – contributing 95.04% of total trade value and 88.26% of volume.
• Banks and Telecoms (MTNN, ZENITHBANK) were primary drivers of momentum, with spillover into Brewers (INTBREW, CHAMPION, PZ).

Momentum Insights (RSI, MACD, Moving Average)

• Overbought (RSI > 70): MTNN (85.4), INTBREW (81.3), FIDSON (95.0), FIRSTHOLDCO (76.2), MAYBAKER (71.1), PZ (71.7), CHAMPION (70.2) – High risk of near-term pullback as momentum is stretched.
• Bullish Crosses: Stocks like VITAFOAM, CHAMPION, TIP, and ACCESSCORP have all closed above their 15D moving averages – indicating underlying buying pressure, with further confirmation from positive price action and increasing volumes.
• Bearish Momentum: STERLINGNG, LINKASSURE, LIVESTOCK, UNILEVER, and the VSPBONDETF ETF have moved below their 15DMA, despite the upward trend in the broader market—a possible caution flag for sector-specific correction or rotation.
• Contrasting Patterns: NNFM was a big loser today (-9.97%) but remains a huge YTD gainer (+184.85%). Similar patterns seen in ABCTRANS, LIVESTOCK, which are YTD winners despite daily losses and intermediate bearish crossovers.

Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION (RSI: 70.16, Bullish 15DMA cross, but MACD slightly lagging & YTD +102%): Momentum may stall, suggesting caution for new longs—ideal for active traders to tighten stops or take partial profits.
• OANDO shows high RSI (68.9) and bullish MACD, but is still -13.6% YTD – indicative of a possible reversal play or a longer-term base-forming after a sharp downtrend.
• NGXGROUP – very overbought (RSI 84.8), up 10% today and 45% YTD – after such moves, profit taking or volatility spikes are likely short-term.
• Some high dividend yield stocks (LEARN AFRICA, LIVESTOCK, FIDELITYBK) appeared in bearish or overbought territory—dividend hunters should be wary of being pulled into late-stage rallies.

Sector Heatmap (Select Performers)

Dividend-Beta Matrix

• LEARN AFRICA and PZ are strong income candidates with low beta – attractive for defensive strategies, though watch for technical weakness.
• UBA's higher beta means it's less defensive, more momentum/trend-driven.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK accounted for 9.4% of institutional trade value, with institutional investors making up 95.04% of overall market value today – a signal of sector-focused institutional accumulation.
• BUACEMENT and OANDO also flagged high institutional presence – observe potential block trade-driven market impact and price steadiness/accumulation patterns.

Notable Observations & Implications

• Turnover Surge: Today’s nearly doubled market turnover typically signals strong conviction buying – often seen at major upside breakouts or inflection points. Institutional flows suggest portfolio rebalancing or new thematic plays, especially in banking and telecom sectors.
• Volume Anomalies: FIDELITYBK and LEARN AFRICA saw volumes up 15x and 6x their 90-day averages. Livingtrust Mortgage Bank stands out with over 141x its trailing average.
• Advancing vs. Declining Stocks: Substantial outperformance in banking and telecom names hints at continued sector leadership, but overbought technicals in some may precede short-term pullbacks.
• YTD Gainers in Short-Term Pullback: Many top YTD gainers like INTBREW, CHAMPION, PZ, NNFM, have had short-term corrections or pauses, suggesting profit-taking phases, but broader trend still intact.

Suggestions for Traders

• Momentum Longs: Consider scaling in on confirmed bullish crossovers (above 15DMA) with proper stop loss. Monitor RSI for overbought/overextended risks – especially stocks exceeding RSI 70.
• Profit Taking: For heavily bought stocks (MTNN, NGXGROUP, CHAMPION), partial de-risking or use of trailing stops is prudent.
• Defensive Plays: Rotate into high-dividend, low-beta stocks like LEARN AFRICA and REGALINS for income and defense against possible coming pullback.
• Contrarian Short-Terms: Watch for quick mean-reversion trades in overbought YTD gainers suffering profit taking (NNFM, ABCTRANS), with tight risk management.
• Volume Leaders: FIDELITYBK and BUACEMENT could trend-extend due to surging institutional flows; monitor next few sessions for confirmatory moves.

Retail vs. Institutional Trade Activity

• Institutional investors showed domination in trade value and volume, with their top stocks (OANDO, FIRSTHOLDCO, GTCO, BUACEMENT, ZENITHBANK) largely mapping to sectors showing momentum, confirming institutional leadership in market direction.
• Retail investors focused on ACCESSCORP, UBA, ZENITHBANK, DANGCEM – mostly in banking and large caps. However, these names, while liquid, lagged institutional favorites in price gains (except OANDO).
• Very strong institutional clustering in ZENITHBANK and BUACEMENT suggests rotational flows and possible sector strategic allocations.

Hidden & Subtle Insights

• Banking Sector Rotation: Today’s price and volume spikes in FIDELITYBK, ZENITHBANK and FIRSTHOLDCO indicate sector rotation and portfolio reweighting—expect banking sector to remain in spotlight in coming sessions.
• ETF Divergence: VSPBONDETF’s dramatic drop (-30.8%) versus steady STANBICETF30 (+10%) reveals divergence between fixed income proxies and broad equities, possibly signaling macro or policy repositioning.
• Defensive High Yields: Some high-yield, low-beta stocks (LEARN AFRICA, REGALINS, PZ, FIDELITYBK) combine defensive features with recent bullish/neutral technical crossovers—attractive for yield-focused investors.
• Mean-Reversion Watch: Several names are running very hot on RSI and momentum (FIDSON, MTNN, INTBREW). Expect short-term cooling/whipsaws.

Summary Table: YTD Top 5 Gainers and Losers

Actionable Takeaways

• Banks and Telecoms remain favored as institutional flows dominate; stay alert for short-term exhaustion in the hottest names.
• Dividend strategies can look at LEARN AFRICA, FIDELITYBK, and REGALINS for lower beta yield plays.
• Contrarian/mean-reversion traders should watch pullbacks in overbought/extended names for tactical entries or short-term reversals.
• Watch for profit-taking in names with RSI >75 and high YTD returns; new highs are often met with volatility.

For deeper analysis of any signals, trends, or to screen for portfolio opportunities, consider using PC or RV commands on the InfoWARE Market Data Terminal.